I’ve started this post at least 10 times over the last year. Every time a rumor creeps out about Verizon carrying the iPhone, the tech world explodes and everyone starts speculating about Big Red carrying the iPhone, but I resist, because a couple of days later the talk dies down as everyone realizes that we’ve been here before.
It’s sort of like the story of the boy who cried wolf. Many of us have heard this rumor one-too-many times to get worked up over it. But this time it seems like the story might actually be true.
Yesterday the Wall Street Journal published a story claiming that Apple is developing a new iPhone with CDMA technology. They later updated the story to say Verizon would carry this new CDMA iPhone here in the US and that it would release early next year. The Wall Street Journal usually doesn’t publish stuff on Apple unless they have concrete evidence (meaning legit leaks) and this probably signifies that there is some truth to the story.
Of course, the tech world went crazy, and many people are excited about the possibilities of a new iPhone carrier, and that’s a big deal. Apple will earn a lot of new customers this way, and many people that are on AT&T will switch over the Verizon to use their iPhones under that carrier. That’s all fine and dandy, but I have a theory:
I recently heard that the iPhone generates a ridiculous majority of the data traffic on AT&T’s network. AT&T has millions of iPhone subscribers, but 100s of millions of subscribers total. So a very, very small minority of subscribers on AT&T’s network generates the majority of the traffic.
That’s absolutely ridiculous. The iPhone’s problem is not AT&T. The iPhone’s problem is that it’s the iPhone! It’s the most popular phone in the world, and everyone wants one. This primarily is the reason why AT&T has so many issues. It’s impossible for them to keep up with the demand of the iPhone.
What makes everyone think that Verizon will be any different? It’s network is supposed to be more reliable, but right now, Verizon does not have the iPhone. Verizon does not cater to the most data-hungry set of phone users in the world. I have a theory: Verizon will carry the iPhone, millions of people will either get their first iPhone with Big Red or switch to Verizon from AT&T and the traffic will bring Verizon to it’s knees. Then Verizon will get some of the bad press for awhile before everyone realizes that the problem is simply the popularity of the phone, and not necessarily the fault of the networks.
And the rest of us with AT&T will enjoy better network performance thanks to the shifted load.
In summary, I’m not jumping on the Verizon iPhone bandwagon. They are headed to the same wreck that AT&T is in. Count on it.
Save a permalink to this post now, and come back in a couple of years and see if I’m right.
Now I’m just waiting for T-Mobile to get it, so I can make my girlfriend switch and prove to her how awesome it is.